Question

When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction2032-07-05 (2029-04-19 - 2037-07-10)

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weight:

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2039-12-30

...

2029-04-19 03:10

2032-07-05 00:27

2037-07-10 08:27

17.1%

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Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

World Health Organization

Mpox became a global health emergency for the second time in 2024

New Scientist•Dec 14, 2024

Pakistan begins last anti-polio vaccination campaign of the year after a surge in cases

Associated Press•Dec 16, 2024

Trump repeats support of polio vaccine, as RFK Jr., allies come under fire

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

29.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

World Health Organization

Mpox became a global health emergency for the second time in 2024

New Scientist•Dec 14, 2024

Pakistan begins last anti-polio vaccination campaign of the year after a surge in cases

Associated Press•Dec 16, 2024

Trump repeats support of polio vaccine, as RFK Jr., allies come under fire

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

29.7%

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When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?

Make a Prediction

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

Comments

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?

How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?