Question

Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?

46 comments46

Total Forecasters209

Community Prediction80% (67% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space

Technology

Colonization of Mars

International Space Station

Moon

Baikonur Cosmodrome

Expedition 15

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

NASA finalizes strategy for human presence in space

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Nasa astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams forced to extend their stay on the ISS – but what’s it really like to be stranded in space?

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

55%

Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?

95.1%

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space

Technology

Colonization of Mars

International Space Station

Moon

Baikonur Cosmodrome

Expedition 15

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

NASA finalizes strategy for human presence in space

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Nasa astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams forced to extend their stay on the ISS – but what’s it really like to be stranded in space?

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

55%

Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?

95.1%

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

Comments

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?