Question

Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?

46 comments46

Total Forecasters210

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 75.3%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space

Technology

Colonization of Mars

International Space Station

Moon

Baikonur Cosmodrome

Expedition 15

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

55%

Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?

95%

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.3%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space

Technology

Colonization of Mars

International Space Station

Moon

Baikonur Cosmodrome

Expedition 15

Should humans plan to live on Mars? Probably not anytime soon : Short Wave : NPR

NPR Online News•Nov 13, 2024

The billionaire CEO who made history with SpaceX describes facing the 'vacuum of death' in only a spacesuit

Business Insider•Nov 14, 2024

The International Space Station is leaking. NASA and Russia’s space agency disagree on the risks

CNN•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

55%

Will there be more than 13 people off of planet Earth on December 31, 2050?

95%

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.3%