Question

US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?

Resolved :No

36 comments36

Total Forecasters190

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.6

Community Peer Score

3.6

median 1.0%mean 1.6%

Authors:

nagolinc

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Supreme Leader of Iran

Revenge assassination plot that could still push the world to the brink: Why Iran wanted to kill Trump on US soil... and how Donald could wreak vengeance

Daily Mail•Nov 11, 2024

Iran Strongly Denies US Claims It Was Involved in Plot To Kill Trump

AntiWar•Nov 11, 2024

Iran Breaks Silence on Trump Assassination Attempt Claims

Newsweek•Nov 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

20%

US Iran War Before 2025? → Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

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