Question

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction6% (5% - 12%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 6%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Trump’s claims of vast presidential powers run up against Article 2 of the Constitution and exceed previous presidents’ power grabs

The Conversation•Feb 25, 2025

What’s a constitutional crisis? Here’s how Trump’s recent moves are challenging the Constitution’s separation of powers

The Conversation•Feb 28, 2025

Dismantling agencies and firing workers: How Trump is redefining relations with Congress & courts

USA Today•Mar 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

17.5%

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

76%

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Trump’s claims of vast presidential powers run up against Article 2 of the Constitution and exceed previous presidents’ power grabs

The Conversation•Feb 25, 2025

What’s a constitutional crisis? Here’s how Trump’s recent moves are challenging the Constitution’s separation of powers

The Conversation•Feb 28, 2025

Dismantling agencies and firing workers: How Trump is redefining relations with Congress & courts

USA Today•Mar 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

17.5%

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

76%