Question

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters66

Community Prediction17.5% (14.5% - 21%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17.5%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

'Connect the dots': Why Trump’s president-for-life 'jokes' must be taken 'seriously'

AlterNet•Feb 25, 2025

‘He believes he is the law’: anti-Maga conservatives view Trump as threat to constitution

Guardian•Feb 25, 2025

Trump’s claims of vast presidential powers run up against Article 2 of the Constitution and exceed previous presidents’ power grabs

The Conversation•Feb 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

Will the USA invade Mexico by Jan 20, 2029?

10%

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

76%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

'Connect the dots': Why Trump’s president-for-life 'jokes' must be taken 'seriously'

AlterNet•Feb 25, 2025

‘He believes he is the law’: anti-Maga conservatives view Trump as threat to constitution

Guardian•Feb 25, 2025

Trump’s claims of vast presidential powers run up against Article 2 of the Constitution and exceed previous presidents’ power grabs

The Conversation•Feb 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

Will the USA invade Mexico by Jan 20, 2029?

10%

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

76%