Question

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

no comments0

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction28% (10% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Bright Line Watch

Politics

Social Sciences

America has an imperial presidency

Economist•Jan 24, 2025

Trump has already begun Project 2025.

Slate•Jan 27, 2025

Trump's immigration orders are a blueprint for sweeping policy changes

NPR Online News•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

11%

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

71%

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Bright Line Watch

Politics

Social Sciences

America has an imperial presidency

Economist•Jan 24, 2025

Trump has already begun Project 2025.

Slate•Jan 27, 2025

Trump's immigration orders are a blueprint for sweeping policy changes

NPR Online News•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

11%

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

71%