Question

How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction394 (297 - 527)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1k
community	296.6	394.3	527	3.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	296.6	—
median	394.3	—
upper 75%	527	—
Upper bound
>1k	3.2%	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 21, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

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How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?

86.4

What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?

0.709

When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?

2067-10-03

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 21, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Residential cruise ship plans to be the next 'blue zone'

New York Post•Mar 5, 2025

The colossal challenge of making a mammoth requires a lot of data centers

•Mar 5, 2025

Inside the secret island where wealthy people go to alter their DNA

Daily Mail•Mar 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?

86.4

What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?

0.709

When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?

2067-10-03