Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

203
491
Total Forecasters1539
Community Prediction2027-03-15 (2025-09-30 - 2030-06-08)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<2020-03-27
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2200-01-04
...
...
...
...
...
0.5%
2025-09-30 01:56
2027-03-15 21:52
2030-06-08 17:58
1.3%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Turing test
Machine learning
Philosophy
Linguistics
Data analysis

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