Question

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

203

497 comments497

Total Forecasters1554

Community Prediction2026-12-11 (2025-09-10 - 2029-10-05)

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My Prediction

community

<2020-03-27

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2200-01-04

...

0.4%

2025-09-10 04:51

2026-12-11 12:44

2029-10-05 19:36

1.0%

Authors:

Anthony

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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2030-12-15

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

34.2

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

15%

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