Question

Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?

Resolved :Yes89%

14 comments14

Total Forecasters161

Community Prediction89% (85% - 93%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 89%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

59.7

Community Beer Score

11.4

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Natural Sciences

2020-2021 Leaderboard

S. Africa’s new research guidelines not a green light for heritable human genome editing

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Designer Babies Are Teenagers Now—and Some of Them Need Therapy Because of It

Wired•Dec 13, 2024

What is gene drive and how could it help in the fight against malaria?

Guardian•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

54.9

When will the first cloned human be born?

2040-07-06

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Natural Sciences

2020-2021 Leaderboard

S. Africa’s new research guidelines not a green light for heritable human genome editing

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Designer Babies Are Teenagers Now—and Some of Them Need Therapy Because of It

Wired•Dec 13, 2024

What is gene drive and how could it help in the fight against malaria?

Guardian•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

54.9

When will the first cloned human be born?

2040-07-06

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?

Make a Prediction

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

When will the first cloned human be born?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Comments

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

When will the first cloned human be born?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

When will the first cloned human be born?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

When will the first cloned human be born?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?