Question

Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?

Resolved :Yes

17 comments17

Total Forecasters172

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

47.3

Community Peer Score

15.5

median 99.0%mean 96.0%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Environmental science

Instrumental temperature record

Climate change denial

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

2023 Was a Warm Year - Here's Why (Hint: It Wasn't Just Us)

Red State•Oct 23, 2024

Earth is likely to have its hottest year on record – again

Independent•Oct 23, 2024

World on pace for significantly more warming without immediate climate action, report warns

Associated Press•Oct 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-05-25

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