Question

What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?

Total Forecasters543

Community Prediction0.205 (0.2 - 0.358)

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CDF

weight:

	<0.2	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15
community	48.7%	<0.2	0.2051	0.3585	0.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.2	48.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	<0.2	—
median	0.2051	—
upper 75%	0.3585	—
Upper bound
>15	0.6%	—

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Feb 10, 2025

Closes:

Mar 25, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 27, 2025

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