Question

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

906

452 comments452

Total Forecasters4252

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Oct 13, 2016

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

SpaceX reusable launch system

Elon Musk

SpaceX Mars transportation infrastructure

Colonization of Mars

SpaceX

The Fate of NASA’s Mars Sample Return Program May Be Decided in 2026

Scientific American•Jan 21, 2025

Trump Vows to Put US Astronauts on Mars: 'Expand our Territory'

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Trump wants to 'plant the Stars and Stripes' on Mars. How long will it take to get there?

USA Today•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

45%

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

0.3%

Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?

24%

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