M

Question

Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?

Resolved:No
5
Resolved Feb 26, 2020
11
Community Prediction25%50%75%Jan 15Jan 18Jan 21Jan 24Jan 27Jan 30Feb 02Feb 05Feb 08Feb 11Feb 14Feb 17Feb 20Feb 23now
Total Forecasters57
Community Prediction
33%
(23% - 43%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 33%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
4.8
Community Peer Score
4.7
median 33.0%mean 34.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
Opened:Jan 14, 2020
Closes:Feb 26, 2020
Resolves:Mar 10, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 15, 2020

Comments

11 comments

@Tamay It's now 10 March. As far as I can tell, the question resolves negatively.

It's good that we made a decision about the precise duration of the seven-day period: Biden is now at 89.1% and it's not unlikely that he will reach or exceed 90% at some point before the end of the day.

6

@(PabloStafforini) Fair, but what a bizarre resolution.

2

@DanielFilan, @(PabloStafforini) with the coming numeric-range log-scores, maybe we should move away from binary questions for forecasting numeric results, because of these weird threshold effects. Although the title would have been a lot less catchy here with a range question.

2

Biden now 87.8% on EBO. @moderators, thoughts on when exactly this should resolve? I think the main alternatives are March 9 23:59:59 and March 10 23:59:59, depending on whether Super Tuesday is taken to start at the beginning of March 3 or at the end of it. We should also specify a time zone.

I personally favor March 9 23:59:59, and pick one of the four US time zones randomly.

2

@(PabloStafforini)

I personally favor March 9 23:59:59, and pick one of the four US time zones randomly.

Sounds good to me.

2

At what time on March 10 will this resolve? Seems worth specifying in advance, since Biden has been above 80% on EBO for the last couple of days, hitting 86.9% at 04:04 (EST) today.

1

I posit the only candidate who has a chance of spiking above 90% is Sanders - currently he is unlikely to dominate Super Tuesday, as he lags behind Biden in states like Texas and Virginia. If he were to sweep Super Tuesday (25%), for instance from a strong bump from Nevada, then I estimate ~70% chance there's a spike above 90%. This is a rough calculation that doesn't include other unlikely but possible scenarios (a sudden surge from Biden, Biden drops out to endorse Bloomberg, etc.), so I've added an uncertainty factor of 10%.

1

This question was erroneously set to close in 2021, when it actually closes in 9 days.

6

Given that the data source updates the odds every 5 minutes, and that betting markets are highly volatile, prices only need to spike above 90% for some candidate for 5 minutes or so, at some point in the week following Super Tuesday, for this to be true. This seems extremely likely, so much so that 80% may even be conservative.

A better way to do this would be to look at average betting odds for the front runner after Super Tuesday in all the years we have such data, and also calculate the average 7 day volatility of betting market prices, and use them to calculate a likely distribution around the favourite in the week of super tuesday.

3

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