Question

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

no comments0

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction90% (78% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

romeodean

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closed:

Feb 17, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Harvard's AI Safety Student Team

OpenAI is rethinking how AI models handle controversial topics

Verge•Feb 13, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

AI-Powered Crypto: A Smart Bet, Or A Dangerous Gamble?

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

85%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

25%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

52%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

romeodean

Opened:

Feb 9, 2025

Closed:

Feb 17, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Harvard's AI Safety Student Team

OpenAI is rethinking how AI models handle controversial topics

Verge•Feb 13, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

AI-Powered Crypto: A Smart Bet, Or A Dangerous Gamble?

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

85%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

25%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

52%