Question

[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?

Resolved :Above upper bound

95 comments95

Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction100k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100k

...

>100k

78.9%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score

91.4

Community Peer Score

53.8

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

0.1%

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

2040-01-01

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