Question

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters223

Community Prediction11% (3% - 21%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 11%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Just Say No to Nuclear War

American Conservative•Jan 17, 2025

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Tomgram: William Hartung, A Strategy of Global Collective Suicide?

OpEdNews•Jan 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

30%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Just Say No to Nuclear War

American Conservative•Jan 17, 2025

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Tomgram: William Hartung, A Strategy of Global Collective Suicide?

OpEdNews•Jan 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

30%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22.5%