Question

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters223

Community Prediction11% (3% - 21%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 11%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jan 23, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2070

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

The Doomsday Clock reset comes Tuesday: How worried should we be?

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

Nuclear War Doomsday Clock Edges Closer to Midnight

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

21%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jan 23, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2070

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

The Doomsday Clock reset comes Tuesday: How worried should we be?

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

Nuclear War Doomsday Clock Edges Closer to Midnight

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

21%