Question

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters224

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 17.4%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

If there is a nuclear war, I will blame Biden. (Joe obviously hasn't read "Frankenstein")

OpEdNews•Nov 24, 2024

Map Shows Safest Countries if There Is Nuclear War and Famine

Newsweek•Nov 26, 2024

What's All the Fuss About? Is Nuclear War Really That Dangerous?

Lew Rockwell•Nov 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

If there is a nuclear war, I will blame Biden. (Joe obviously hasn't read "Frankenstein")

OpEdNews•Nov 24, 2024

Map Shows Safest Countries if There Is Nuclear War and Famine

Newsweek•Nov 26, 2024

What's All the Fuss About? Is Nuclear War Really That Dangerous?

Lew Rockwell•Nov 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%