Question

How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]

Resolved :Above upper bound331M

139

356 comments356

Total Forecasters330

Community Prediction331M (64M - 1B)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<50k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1B

...

0.4%

63.95M

331.2M

>1B

28.8%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score

30.1

Community Peer Score

92.5

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Severe acute respiratory syndrome

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Lyme Disease Is The Most Common Vector-Borne Disease In The U.S., But Nobody Knows Its True Burden

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

Five years on from the pandemic, long COVID keeps lives on hold

Raw Story•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

163k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Severe acute respiratory syndrome

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Lyme Disease Is The Most Common Vector-Borne Disease In The U.S., But Nobody Knows Its True Burden

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

Five years on from the pandemic, long COVID keeps lives on hold

Raw Story•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

163k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

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How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]

Make a Prediction

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?