🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]

Resolved :Above upper bound331M
139
356
Total Forecasters330
Community Prediction331M (64M - 1B)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<50k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1B
...
...
...
...
...
0.4%
63.95M
331.2M
>1B
28.8%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score
30.1
Community Peer Score
92.5
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2020-2021 Leaderboard
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
World Health Organization
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Epidemiology

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