Question

How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?

Resolved :5.08M

172

270 comments270

Total Forecasters545

Community Prediction2.04M

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<200

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100M

...

0.2%

1.521M

2.044M

2.909M

0.6%

What was the final result?5.08M

Community Baseline Score

35.1

Community Peer Score

51.7

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Sudan’s civil war has left at least 62,000 dead by our estimate − but the true figure could be far higher

The Conversation•Nov 4, 2024

Scientists work out maximum age a person can really live to - but can YOU guess how long?

Daily Mail•Nov 5, 2024

Does Everyone Have to Die?

offGuardian•Nov 5, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

158k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

122k

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