Question

How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?

Resolved :5.08M2.04M

172

270 comments270

Total Forecasters545

Community Prediction2.04M (1.52M - 2.91M)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<200

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100M

...

0.2%

1.521M

2.044M

2.909M

0.6%

What was the final result?5.08M

Community Baseline Score

35.1

Community Peer Score

51.7

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Americans are living longer, thanks to pandemic's end, fewer opioid deaths

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

COVID’s End-of-Year Surprise

Atlantic•Dec 21, 2024

Covid Map Shows Latest Rates Across U.S. Before Christmas

Newsweek•Dec 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

163k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

121k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

Americans are living longer, thanks to pandemic's end, fewer opioid deaths

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

COVID’s End-of-Year Surprise

Atlantic•Dec 21, 2024

Covid Map Shows Latest Rates Across U.S. Before Christmas

Newsweek•Dec 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

163k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

121k

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How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?

Make a Prediction

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

Comments

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?