Question

How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?

Resolved :5.08M2.04M

172

270 comments270

Total Forecasters545

Community Prediction2.04M (1.52M - 2.91M)

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CDF

	<200	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>100M
community	0.2%	1.521M	2.044M	2.909M	0.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<200	0.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	1.521M	—
median	2.044M	—
upper 75%	2.909M	—
Upper bound
>100M	0.6%	—

What was the final result?5.08M

Community Baseline Score

35.1

Community Peer Score

51.7

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jan 27, 2020

Closes:

Nov 1, 2020

Resolves:

May 6, 2022

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

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How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

148k

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

38.2M

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