Question

How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?

Resolved :5.08M

172

270 comments270

Total Forecasters545

Community Prediction2.04M

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<200

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100M

...

0.2%

1.521M

2.044M

2.909M

0.6%

What was the final result?5.08M

Community Baseline Score

35.1

Community Peer Score

51.7

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

New York state’s population could drop by 2 million people come 2050, shocking study finds

New York Post•Nov 14, 2024

Measles is debilitating and deadly, and cases are surging, WHO and CDC warn

CNN•Nov 15, 2024

WHO warns of measles resurgence as cases exceed 10 million in 2023

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

158k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

122k

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