Question

When will the first privately governed charter city have 10,000 residents?

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	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2097-01-01
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Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	...	—
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>2097-01-01	—	—

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Feb 21, 2025

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2100

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Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

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CounterPunch•Feb 13, 2025

Billionaires could push controversial California utopia city plans through the backdoor despite angry protests

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?

4.9%

How many charter cities will exist by 2026?

36.8

Will a floating community with a permanent population of at least 100 people exist by the end of 2026, as reported by the Seasteading Institute?

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Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Feb 21, 2025

Closes:

Jan 2, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2100

SpaceX One Step Closer to Creating Texas City: What to Know About 'Starbase'

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

Crypto Bros are Trying to Bankrupt Honduras for Scuttling Their Private Cities

CounterPunch•Feb 13, 2025

Billionaires could push controversial California utopia city plans through the backdoor despite angry protests

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?

4.9%

How many charter cities will exist by 2026?

36.8