Question

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

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Total Forecasters1

Community Prediction70% (70% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Feb 21, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Foresight Institute

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

U.S. Pushes for Less AI Regulation at Paris Summit

Time•Feb 12, 2025

Sam Altman applauds JD Vance’s AI speech in Paris, illustrates ways to take advantage of 'remarkable' tech

FOX News•Feb 12, 2025

Paris AI summit: Why won’t US, UK sign global artificial intelligence pact?

Al Jazeera•Feb 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

67%

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

17%

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

77%

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