Question

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

109 comments109

Total Forecasters512

Community Prediction80% (67.5% - 90%)

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50%

community: 80%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Why AI must learn to admit ignorance and say 'I don't know'

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Why AI must learn to admit ignorance and say 'I don't know'

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

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Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Comments

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?