Question

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

109 comments109

Total Forecasters513

Community Prediction80% (69% - 90%)

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50%

community: 80%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

What the world needs now is directions for reducing our dependence on technology

OpEdNews•Jan 21, 2025

ChatGPT can now handle reminders and to-dos

Verge•Jan 15, 2025

These are Sam Altman's predictions on how the world might change with AI

Business Insider•Jan 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2029-02-07

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

What the world needs now is directions for reducing our dependence on technology

OpEdNews•Jan 21, 2025

ChatGPT can now handle reminders and to-dos

Verge•Jan 15, 2025

These are Sam Altman's predictions on how the world might change with AI

Business Insider•Jan 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2029-02-07

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%