Question

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

108 comments108

Total Forecasters511

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 70.6%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%