Question

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

109 comments109

Total Forecasters511

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 70.8%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

What Will Our Technology Look Like In 2125?

Red State•Nov 23, 2024

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When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

What Will Our Technology Look Like In 2125?

Red State•Nov 23, 2024

How Do You Get to Artificial General Intelligence? Think Lighter

Wired•Nov 26, 2024

AI improvements are slowing down. Companies have a plan to break through the wall.

Business Insider•Nov 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%