Question

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

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Matthew_Barnett

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AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI, Microsoft, and the $100 billion AGI question

Verge•Dec 27, 2024

‘Godfather of AI’ shortens odds of the technology wiping out humanity over next 30 years

Guardian•Dec 28, 2024

'Godfather of AI' shortens odds that new technology will wipe out human race over the next 30 years

Daily Mail•Dec 28, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-31

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI, Microsoft, and the $100 billion AGI question

Verge•Dec 27, 2024

‘Godfather of AI’ shortens odds of the technology wiping out humanity over next 30 years

Guardian•Dec 28, 2024

'Godfather of AI' shortens odds that new technology will wipe out human race over the next 30 years

Daily Mail•Dec 28, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-31

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

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Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

Comments

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?