Question

Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?

Resolved :Yes90%

62 comments62

Total Forecasters308

Community Prediction90% (76% - 93%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

28.0

Community Beer Score

4.3

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2026 Leaderboard

Natural language processing

GPU cluster

Information technology

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Nvidia

Microsoft

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Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2026 Leaderboard

Natural language processing

GPU cluster

Information technology

Linguistics

Nvidia

Microsoft

Microsoft debuts Phi-4, a new generative AI model, in research preview

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

Will the world's fastest supercomputer please stand up?

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

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Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Comments

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?