Question

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

109 comments109

Total Forecasters579

Community Prediction2%

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50%

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 5.9%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Wuhan Institute of Virology

Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market

Jianghan District

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Wuhan Institute of Virology

Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market

Jianghan District

Wuhan Institute of Virology’s ‘Bat Lady’ Researching How to Bind Coronavirus to Cells More Efficiently

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Does Everyone Have to Die?

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China's army of super soldiers: How Beijing is ruthlessly amassing the world's biggest DNA database - much of it harvested from millions in the West

Daily Mail•Nov 6, 2024

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By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%