Question
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?
Resolved :No1%Total Forecasters588
Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 3%)
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Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
59.8
Community Peer Score
12.1
Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 2, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
61%
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
7%
Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?
2%
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 19, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 2, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
61%
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
7%
Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?
2%