📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

24
18
Total Forecasters98
Community Prediction2039-04-25 (2032-06-19 - 2054-03-04)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2100-01-01
...
...
...
...
2032-06-19 14:05
2039-04-25 15:42
2054-03-04 18:35
5.7%
Authors:
NoUsernameSelected
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Computing and Math
Cryptography
Shor's algorithm
Physics
Quantum mechanics
Quantum computing
RSA numbers
RSA Security
RSA Factoring Challenge

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