Question
When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?
Total Forecasters101
Community Prediction
2039
(2032 - 2054)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2032 | — |
| median | 2039 | — |
| upper 75% | 2054 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >410244480000% | 4.8% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Feb 20, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2099
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 22, 2020
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Feb 20, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2099
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 22, 2020