Question

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

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Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction2039-04-25 (2032-06-19 - 2054-03-04)

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01-01

...

2032-06-19 14:05

2039-04-25 15:42

2054-03-04 18:35

5.7%

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RSA Factoring Challenge

Google says its breakthrough quantum chip can’t break modern cryptography

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The US Navy wants to use quantum computers for war games and much more

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Google unveils a quantum chip. Could it help unlock the universe's deepest secrets?

NPR Online News•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08-21

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

2121-01-15

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

2033-06-03

Comments

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Authors:

NoUsernameSelected

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

RSA Factoring Challenge

Google says its breakthrough quantum chip can’t break modern cryptography

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The US Navy wants to use quantum computers for war games and much more

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Google unveils a quantum chip. Could it help unlock the universe's deepest secrets?

NPR Online News•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08-21

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

2121-01-15

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

2033-06-03

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When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Make a Prediction

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

Comments

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?