Question

Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

Resolved :No

44 comments44

Total Forecasters164

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

66.7

Community Peer Score

10.6

median 1.0%mean 3.8%

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Health & Pandemics

Virology

Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Centre for Health Protection

Public Health England

National Centre for Infectious Diseases

Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Public Health Agency of Canada

China

Hubei

Public health

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

1.9%

Comments

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