Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

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Question

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

16
41
Total Forecasters201
Community Prediction5% (0.1% - 16%)

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50%
community: 5%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
ignorance.prior
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Health & Pandemics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Centre for Health Protection
Public Health England
National Centre for Infectious Diseases
Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Public Health Agency of Canada
China
Hubei
Public health

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