Question

When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?

Resolved :Ambiguous2024-03-21

46 comments46

Total Forecasters138

Community Prediction2024-03-21 (2022-09-08 - 2028-04-03)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01-01

...

2022-09-08 15:38

2024-03-21 05:15

2028-04-03 12:48

0.3%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

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Authors:

Mati_Roy

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Fusion energy gain factor

Focused Energy buys two of the world’s most powerful lasers for its fusion quest

TechCrunch•Dec 17, 2024

Commonwealth Fusion Systems just picked its first commercial site partly because of its proximity to Washington, D.C.

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

‘World’s first’ grid-scale nuclear fusion power plant announced in the US in another step for the futuristic energy

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

2048-06-06

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

2048-09-17

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Mati_Roy

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Fusion energy gain factor

Focused Energy buys two of the world’s most powerful lasers for its fusion quest

TechCrunch•Dec 17, 2024

Commonwealth Fusion Systems just picked its first commercial site partly because of its proximity to Washington, D.C.

TechCrunch•Dec 18, 2024

‘World’s first’ grid-scale nuclear fusion power plant announced in the US in another step for the futuristic energy

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

2048-06-06

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

2048-09-17

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When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?

Make a Prediction

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

Comments

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?