Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?

Resolved :0.004160.00587
109
351
Total Forecasters363
Community Prediction0.00587 (0.00393 - 0.00874)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<0.001
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>0.1
...
...
...
...
...
1.6%
0.003929
0.005867
0.008744
0.7%

What was the final result?0.00416

Community Baseline Score
23.5
Community Peer Score
39.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
ignorance.prior
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
World Health Organization
Epidemiology

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