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When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

245 forecasters

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SAE Autonomy Level	resolution
L3	Apr 15, 2021
L4	Oct 20, 2020
SAE Autonomy Level	25th	median	75th
L5	2026-08-30 ...	2029-09-22 ...	2036-05-03 ...

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12-30

2022-12-23 02:20

2025-04-08 15:41

2029-03-29 18:57

0.1%

What was the final result?Oct 20, 2020

Community Baseline Score

10.1

Community Peer Score

5.8

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 0

Authors:

Mati_Roy casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Technology

2020-2021 Leaderboard

2016-2025 Leaderboard

NHTSA finally releases new rules for self-driving cars — but there’s a twist

Verge•Dec 21, 2024

Feds clear the way for robotaxis without steering wheels and pedals

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Mati_Roy casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

Technology

2020-2021 Leaderboard

2016-2025 Leaderboard

NHTSA finally releases new rules for self-driving cars — but there’s a twist

Verge•Dec 21, 2024

Feds clear the way for robotaxis without steering wheels and pedals

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

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When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Comments

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?