📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

10
122
246 forecasters

Make a Prediction

SAE Autonomy Levelresolution
SAE Autonomy Level25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2099-12-30
2022-12-23 02:20
2025-04-08 15:41
2029-03-29 18:57
0.1%

What was the final result?Oct 20, 2020

Community Baseline Score
10.1
Community Peer Score
5.8

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 0
Authors:
Mati_Roycasens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Artificial Intelligence
Economy & Business
Technology
2020-2021 Leaderboard
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Transport
Military science
Robotics
Cadillac
Supercruise
Level 0
Level 1
Level 2

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