📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

14
21
Total Forecasters48
Community Prediction2028-09-10 (2026-02-10 - 2033-08-02)

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<2020-12-29
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2050-12-29
...
...
...
...
...
2.6%
2026-02-10 21:28
2028-09-10 20:21
2033-08-02 02:12
8.2%
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Health & Pandemics
Infectious disease
AIDS in the United States
Biology
Lentivirus
Subtypes of HIV
Medicine
Immunology
Virology
HIV vaccine
HIV

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