Question

When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction2028-06-10 (2025-11-23 - 2033-03-19)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<2020-12-29

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-12-29

...

2.6%

2025-11-23 20:14

2028-06-10 03:44

2033-03-19 17:26

7.4%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AIDS in the United States

Biology

Medicine

Immunology

This drug is the 'breakthrough of the year' — and it could mean the end of the HIV epidemic

NPR Online News•Dec 13, 2024

Hardest-hit Nigeria is latest African country to provide malaria vaccine to young children

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

33%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AIDS in the United States

Biology

Medicine

Immunology

This drug is the 'breakthrough of the year' — and it could mean the end of the HIV epidemic

NPR Online News•Dec 13, 2024

Hardest-hit Nigeria is latest African country to provide malaria vaccine to young children

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

75%

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

33%

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MetaculusM

When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

Make a Prediction

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Comments

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032? → More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?

Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?