Question
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
Total Forecasters234
Community Prediction18.9 (5.01 - 93.8)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.033 | 3.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 5.008 | — |
| median | 18.92 | — |
| upper 75% | 93.8 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >360 | 14.2% | — |
Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
