📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

44
36
Total Forecasters232
Community Prediction19.9 (5.34 - 105)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<0.033
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>360
...
...
...
...
...
3.3%
5.342
19.91
105.5
15.1%
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Robotics
Ethics
Philosophy
Superintelligence
Robin Hanson
AGI
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nick Bostrom
Artificial general intelligence
Paul Christiano

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