Question

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

36 comments36

Total Forecasters231

Community Prediction20.3 (4.82 - 115)

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My Prediction

community

<0.033

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>360

...

3.7%

4.823

20.26

115.3

15.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

What Are AI Agents, and Why Are They About to Be Everywhere?

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

46.6

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-06-03

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

What Are AI Agents, and Why Are They About to Be Everywhere?

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

46.6

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-06-03

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

Make a Prediction

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Comments

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?