Question

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

36 comments36

Total Forecasters231

Community Prediction19.7

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<0.033

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>360

...

3.9%

4.466

19.68

119.1

16.1%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-09-29

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

Paul Christiano

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Business Insider•Nov 12, 2024

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Time•Nov 12, 2024

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After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-09-29

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43