Question
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
Total Forecasters233
Community Prediction
19.1 months
(4.99 - 97.8)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.033 | 3.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 4.988 | — |
| median | 19.12 | — |
| upper 75% | 97.8 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >360 | 14.6% | — |
Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2020
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2020
