Question

In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters242

Community Prediction2031-12-09 (2027-12-02 - 2037-02-17)

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lower 25%

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upper 75%

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2027-12-02 03:42

2031-12-09 16:12

2037-02-17 13:17

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Anthony

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Nissan

Kia Motors

Volvo Cars

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

California can ban new gas cars starting in 2035, EPA says

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

NHTSA finally releases new rules for self-driving cars — but there’s a twist

Verge•Dec 21, 2024

Feds clear the way for robotaxis without steering wheels and pedals

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?

2028-06-20

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?

28.7

Comments

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Nissan

Kia Motors

Volvo Cars

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

California can ban new gas cars starting in 2035, EPA says

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

NHTSA finally releases new rules for self-driving cars — but there’s a twist

Verge•Dec 21, 2024

Feds clear the way for robotaxis without steering wheels and pedals

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?

2028-06-20

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?

28.7

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In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?

Make a Prediction

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?

Comments

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?