📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?

54
16
Total Forecasters242
Community Prediction2031-12-09 (2027-12-02 - 2037-02-17)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
2027-12-02 03:42
2031-12-09 16:12
2037-02-17 13:17
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Technology
2016-2020 Leaderboard
Nissan
Kia Motors
Volvo Cars
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Honda
Ford Motor Company
Audi
Elon Musk
Tesla

Comments

? comments