23
105 forecasters
23 comments
105 forecasters
Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?
99.4%chance
1.4% this week
Top Key Factors
Community is outperforming Dylan significantly
Increases Likelihood
Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range
Increases Likelihood
Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience (increases uncertainty)
Increases Likelihood
Dylan Matthews Profile and Activity | Voxvox.com•Dec 31, 2025
Decreases Likelihood
Nathan won in the Spring Cup, the base rate is higher than was expected
Increases Likelihood
Community is outperforming Dylan significantly
Increases Likelihood
Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience (increases uncertainty)
Increases Likelihood
Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range
Increases Likelihood
Dylan Matthews Profile and Activity | Voxvox.com•Dec 31, 2025
Decreases Likelihood
Nathan won in the Spring Cup, the base rate is higher than was expected
Increases Likelihood