Question

When will be the next "Great Power" war?

Resolved :Apr 21, 20242035-07-05

77 comments77

Total Forecasters154

Community Prediction2035-07-05 (2026-01-19 - 2058-01-13)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12-28

...

2026-01-19 15:58

2035-07-05 04:51

2058-01-13 16:46

5.6%

What was the final result?Apr 21, 2024

Community Baseline Score

1.7

Community Peer Score

1.1

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

China

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

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When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

2042-03-17

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will a world war begin before 2151?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

China

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

China Hosts Nuclear Weapons Talks Amid Saber-Rattling in Europe

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

2042-03-17

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will a world war begin before 2151?

60%

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When will be the next "Great Power" war?

Make a Prediction

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will a world war begin before 2151?

Comments

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will a world war begin before 2151?

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will a world war begin before 2151?

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will a world war begin before 2151?