Question

When will be the next "Great Power" war?

Resolved :Apr 21, 2024

77 comments77

Total Forecasters154

Community Prediction2035-07-05

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12-28

...

2026-01-19 15:58

2035-07-05 04:51

2058-01-13 16:46

5.6%

What was the final result?Apr 21, 2024

Community Baseline Score

1.7

Community Peer Score

1.1

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

China

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

2042-03-17

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will a world war begin before 2151?

60%

Comments

? comments