Question

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction2.08M (370k - 15.8M)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1B

...

370.3k

2.078M

15.82M

6.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI

Microsoft

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

3.95B

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI

Microsoft

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

1.76k

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

3.95B

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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

Make a Prediction

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

Comments

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many petaFLOPs will be used to train it?