Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will the Catholic Church Elect a new Pope?

19
40
Total Forecasters113
Community Prediction2026-02-04 (2025-03-10 - 2027-08-09)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2036-12-16
...
...
...
...
2025-03-10 04:50
2026-02-04 09:34
2027-08-09 02:35
0.3%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AABoyles
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Verity
Elections
Pope
Papal conclave
Resignation of Pope Benedict XVI
Habemus papam
Pope Francis
Catholic Church

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