Question

Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?

Resolved :Yes

91 comments91

Total Forecasters126

Community Prediction25%

Make a Prediction

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-4.6

Community Peer Score

-5.3

median 25.0%mean 29.0%

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Environment & Climate

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets? → First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

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? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

Environmental science

Climate change denial

NOAA Map Reveals US Set for Unusually Warm Winter

Newsweek•Oct 22, 2024

2023 Was a Warm Year - Here's Why (Hint: It Wasn't Just Us)

Red State•Oct 23, 2024

Earth is likely to have its hottest year on record – again

Independent•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%