Question

If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?

Resolved :Annulled135

3 comments3

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction135 (130 - 141)

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CDF

My Prediction

community

<100

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>180

...

1.1%

129.6

135.1

140.5

0.5%

What was the final result?Annulled

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Jun 24, 2020

Closes:

Feb 14, 2027

Resolves:

Feb 14, 2027

Conservative Party (UK)

Farage Counts Down to Reform Overtaking Tory Membership

Breitbart•Jan 28, 2025

Is the UK prepared to welcome one million migrants a year?

Spectator (UK)•Jan 28, 2025

UK population exceeds that of France for first time on record, ONS data shows

Guardian•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?

129

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

27%

Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Jun 24, 2020

Closes:

Feb 14, 2027

Resolves:

Feb 14, 2027

Conservative Party (UK)

Farage Counts Down to Reform Overtaking Tory Membership

Breitbart•Jan 28, 2025

Is the UK prepared to welcome one million migrants a year?

Spectator (UK)•Jan 28, 2025

UK population exceeds that of France for first time on record, ONS data shows

Guardian•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?

129

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

27%

Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament?

20%