Question

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric in 2030?

Total Forecasters114

Community Prediction9.69 (5.97 - 14.7)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	5.968	9.689	14.73
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	5.968	—
median	9.689	—
upper 75%	14.73	—

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Jun 26, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Economy & Business

Technology

Edison Electric Institute

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles

End of the road for electric cars? Study reveals how quickly the battery degrades in EVs

Daily Mail•Feb 13, 2025

Power Surge: IEA Projects Sharp Rise in Global Electricity Demand

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Trump Isn’t The Enemy Of EVs, Consumers Are (Range Anxiety)

Forbes•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

19%

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

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