Question

Amplified forecasting: What will Buck's informed prediction of compute used in the largest ML training run before 2030 be?

Resolved :Ambiguous12.3

24 comments24

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction12.3 (9.04 - 16.4)

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CDF

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30

...

9.045

12.3

16.41

6.2%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Authors:

ought

Opened:

Jun 30, 2020

Closes:

Jul 8, 2020

Resolves:

Jul 26, 2020

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020 Leaderboard

PayPal

Kullback–Leibler divergence

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Statistics

Information theory

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In 2029, will a single AI training run consume as much electricity in a month as a city of 100,000 people?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?

100k

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