Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Amplified forecasting: What will Buck's informed prediction of compute used in the largest ML training run before 2030 be?

Resolved :Ambiguous12.3
12
24
Total Forecasters23
Community Prediction12.3 (9.04 - 16.4)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>30
...
...
...
...
9.045
12.3
16.41
6.2%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
ought
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2020 Leaderboard
PayPal
Kullback–Leibler divergence
Machine Intelligence Research Institute
Statistics
Information theory

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