Question

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

67 comments67

Total Forecasters445

Community Prediction20%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

median 20.0%mean 27.8%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.02

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.02

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%