Question

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

67 comments67

Total Forecasters464

Community Prediction23% (15% - 42%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 23%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Aug 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Feb 2, 2025

Map Shows Where America's Nuclear War Fallout Shelters Are Located

Newsweek•Feb 2, 2025

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Feb 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

8.58

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.04

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Aug 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Feb 2, 2025

Map Shows Where America's Nuclear War Fallout Shelters Are Located

Newsweek•Feb 2, 2025

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Feb 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

8.58

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.04

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%