Question

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

67 comments67

Total Forecasters446

Community Prediction22%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 22%

median 22.0%mean 28.1%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

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Newsweek•Nov 28, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.02

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

Map Shows Safest Countries if There Is Nuclear War and Famine

Newsweek•Nov 26, 2024

What's All the Fuss About? Is Nuclear War Really That Dangerous?

Lew Rockwell•Nov 27, 2024

Nuclear Bomb Map Shows Impact of Russian Weapons on Major US Cities

Newsweek•Nov 28, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.02

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%