Question

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

67 comments67

Total Forecasters469

Community Prediction25% (15% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Aug 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

8.58

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.03

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Aug 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

8.58

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.03

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%