📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?

3
2
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction8.53 (0.603 - 33)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<0.033
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>33
...
...
...
...
...
11.4%
0.6027
8.534
>33
37.9%
Authors:
tetraspace
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Technology
Biology
Chemistry
Alcor Life Extension Foundation
Biotechnology
Toxicology
Medicine
Glutaraldehyde
Ralph Merkle
Brain Preservation Foundation

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